Markous: “Oil at 100 dollars reflects geopolitical risk, not fundamentals”
Invited to the Buenos Aires IEFA forum, Tecpetrol’s CEO highlighted Argentina’s potential while rising geopolitical tensions disrupt energy markets.
Against heightened geopolitical tensions linked to the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, Ricardo Markous said current market conditions—including elevated oil prices—are expected to stabilize, although uncertainty remains. He was speaking at the International Economic Forum of the Americas (IEFA), held in Buenos Aires this week.
The forum brought together political and private-sector leaders from the energy, mining and technology sectors, and included a session about the development of the Neuquén Basin. Markous took part in the panel “Vaca Muerta: Transforming Latin America’s Energy Landscape”, alongside Neuquén Governor Rolando Figueroa, Río Negro Governor Alberto Weretilneck, and Pablo Bizzotto, CEO of Phoenix Global Resources.
“In this unfortunate war, USD 100 oil reflects geopolitical risk, not fundamentals. The futures curve shows prices easing to around USD 70 by 2030—only marginally above the USD 66 projected before the conflict,” explained Markous when asked about Argentina’s role as a potential key player in the global energy market at this juncture.
A showcase for investors.The IEFA meeting in Buenos Aires provided an opportunity to showcase Argentina's major energy projects.
“The picture has shifted. Argentina once imported 80 LNG cargoes to meet demand; this year it will import just 20. At the same time, Vaca Muerta is driving more than 300,000 barrels per day in exports, reversing domestic decline and generating an USD 8 billion energy surplus in just four years,” he added.
The event, held at the Four Seasons Hotel, also served as a platform to highlight Argentina’s resource base and investment potential to local and international stakeholders.
In a similar vein, Rio Negro Governor Alberto Weretilneck pointed to a high degree of alignment across sectors, saying national and provincial governments and the private sector “are aligned as regards the key elements of the country we want to build.” He cited collaboration on strategic projects such as the VMOS oil pipeline, which will connect Vaca Muerta to Punta Colorada in Río Negro, where construction is advancing swiftly.
Rolando Figueroa said adding upstream to the Large Investment Incentives Regime (RIGI) sets out the “clear rules of the game” required to develop resources. “We need to be more competitive and adaptable, and deliver projects that are socially and environmentally sustainable—from a single rock.”
Working together toward a common goal.Markous alongside Governors Figueroa and Weretilneck, Pablo Bizzotto (Phoenix), and moderator Jonathan Gilbert (Bloomberg).
Pablo Bizzotto, CEO of Phoenix Global Resources—a company with unconventional projects in both provinces—described Vaca Muerta as a turning point. “Today, it’s become a model of public policy and a leading case worth replicating, where all stakeholders are aligned behind one single opportunity, setting an example for what other sectors in Argentina can achieve.” He emphasized that the play “pushes us to expand technical limits every day,” particularly in well design and production.
As for the challenges facing industry, Weretilneck said provincial teams are adjusting to the next development phases, such as permit processing. He explained that while projects like the VMOS previously took around a year to process, the goal is to cut that timeframe to six months. “This is a demanding and competitive industry, and we all need to raise our game.”
Education was highlighted as central to local development and to what Figueroa described as a “social contract” linking resources to tangible benefits for the local community. “To generate real employment in a province where 40% of the population was poor and unemployed, despite its resource base, we focused on training so people could access formal jobs,” he explained, citing initiatives such as the Vaca Muerta Institute—launched the previous day—and 20,000 student scholarships. “Poverty has fallen by 36 percentage points, and unemployment is down by half,” he said by way of illustration.
In closing, Markous pointed to progress at the Los Toldos II Este project in northern Vaca Muerta and outlined Tecpetrol’s education efforts, including the Gregorio Álvarez scholarships promoted by the province of Neuquén; the teacher and student training courses delivered through the GenEra program, backed by an annual budget of USD 600,000; and support for local SMEs via the ProPymes Program. “This marks a step change,” he announced. “With access to financing, Vaca Muerta can move into its next phase.”